How You Will Know If You Are At The Bottom

Steve Forbes Interviews Don Peebles discusses How To Determine When The Right Time To Buy Real Estate Is

Excerpts from the interview; Forbes Magizine.com

Vegas and FLA Suffer

Forbes: Do you see big differences in regions of the country where you think some are harder hit than others, or some may come back quicker than others in this thing?

Peebles: Yeah, I do. I see we're actually in two markets that I think are probably the worst two markets for residential, for sure, and that is Las Vegas and South Florida. South Florida was overbuilt. And you take Miami, for example, on the condo side: In downtown Miami alone, almost 50,000 new units were built during this market cycle. And that's not a center of employment. I think it's their values have plummeted, 60%, 70%.

Forbes: Wow.

Peebles: And then they have a bigger problem: that many of these condo buildings, the owners who are in foreclosure, or the banks who have them, are not paying condo fees. And so you have this small number of people in the buildings that are having to carry the operation of the whole building. And so the building's getting a little bit more run-down and has greater financial problems. So buyers are even more reluctant to buy, so that pushes value down.

I think that market doesn't recover for five to seven years, maybe even a bit longer. Las Vegas: good, strong fundamentals--still 8,000 people a month moving there. It's producing thousands of new jobs. Clark County is expected to have an increase in population of 1.25 million new residents by the year 2025.

So I see that coming back sooner because they've got a very strong, diverse economic base. I see Washington, D.C., is down. The government never gets smaller, so I think Washington's safe. And I think New York's safe. New York's the greatest city in the world. It's the epicenter of capitalism. And it'll rebound. And I think New York real estate's probably the safest real estate in the country.

Forbes: Wow. You mentioned Las Vegas, and somebody was telling me that before the crisis hit again in September, that housing prices had fallen so much that people were starting to nibble again. And now, people are holding back. Do you think once the fears of the immediate crisis subside there'll be more bottom-fishing in real estate?

Peebles: Yeah. I think on the residential side, in places where there's a strong economy or where there's job production, you're going to see the residential market pick up because people need--it's a necessity. Shelter's a necessity. And what has happened is the affordability index has gone so much now in the favor of the buyer that even first-time buyers with conservative underwriting are now able to come into the markets.

But an alarming statistic is new homes, if you look at the statistics from September '08 compared to '07, new home sales are down almost 40%, but existing home sales are up in the mid-'30s [percent]. So, what's happening is that the existing homes--many of them are in foreclosure, especially in places like Las Vegas. So the banks can write them down to whatever it takes to sell them to get them off the books. The home builders can't afford to write them down below cost.

They will have to at some point. They'll be going to the banks and the banks will work out a restructure. But I think you're going to see more and more people who can afford homes once there's financing out there. Once FHA [Federal Housing Administration] gets into full swing, Fannie Mae gets into full swing and the government invests the capital that's going to be necessary to do that I think then you'll see things pick up.

I think--I hope--though that the government doesn't go through a program of bailing out irresponsible home purchasers, bailing out people with existing mortgages. And I think that that serves as a disincentive for those who acted responsibly.



 Buy Out the Rich

Forbes: An individual investor who might go on the stock market sees what you see, few years out, some real bargains out there; how does an individual investor participate in the return of real estate other than being a developer?

Peebles: Oh, yeah. I think that, in fact, right now is probably not a good time to be a developer because you can buy for so much--you can buy existing for so much less than it cost to build. And the individual investor, first of all, ought to be looking at their own life experience.

What do they need to live in? Do they own their own home? If they want to improve the quality of life and they can afford it, now's the best time to buy a vacation home. And I mean, even at the top end. The members of the Forbes 400, now should be a good time to buy their vacation home if they want, because they can buy it on sale.

So, quality's on sale, all the way down. And I think the average small investor who's looking for real estate to provide some form of retirement or some form of supplement income or they want to transition into it, now's the time to buy residential real estate because at this point in time, you can buy houses and apartments at a price point where you can rent them out and they actually will cover cost of operating cost and debt service, and maybe even pay a small return on equity. And that gives you an indication when you get to a point where real estate can--residential single-family homes or condos can carry themselves on a rental basis; that's the time to buy.

So now I would be looking to do that if I were a small investor. And, if I could afford it, I would look to buy some of the most depressed assets, which will be vacant properties and undeveloped land because those are hit the hardest, and they're written down to 20 cents on the dollar today. For vacant land, you can buy sites at 20, 25 cents on the dollar. And so, if you have the money where you could afford to wait, that would be the place I would buy as well.


The Great Wealth Transfer

Forbes: So, is that your bold prediction for the future, that times will get better even though people think the world's coming to an end now?

Peebles: Oh, absolutely. I think this economy right now is going to transfer a great deal of wealth. We had some people who are very, very wealthy and their stock has changed on them so quickly. And there are going to be other people there to pick up the pieces and they're going to make a lot of money. And then, two years from now, two and a half years from now, people are going to be thinking, "Why didn't I buy that stock, or why didn't I buy real estate," because look at where it is again, it's on its way back. And then we'll get back to the good times again. And then of course, people will forget all these bad times.

Forbes: Good note to end. Don, thank you very much for being with us.

 

   
     
     

 

 

 

Just Say No To Multiple Offers

How to Have Your Cake And Eat It TOO

Get What You Want From The Banks!..


       A big frustration for homebuyers
these days is many of the listings are bank owned homes that need some repair and may have trouble qualifying  for financing.

Mainly they only need some cosmetic and minor structural repair, otherwise these are perfectly good houses!

       Banks are unwilling to repair these foreclosed homes before they put them on the market simply because they have too many of them (REO listings).

       The problem this creates for the homebuyer is multiple offers on every house worth making an offer on.

For every 7 houses there are only 1 or 2 houses that are worth buying.

       Most homebuyers will admit it is emotionally taxing to make offer after offer and still not get an excepted offer.

 A solution to this could be potentionally lucrative for someone who is willing to go the extra step.

      There is A little known Government loan program. That allows the homebuyer to  purchase and finance the needed funds to do any repairs the home might need at the same time. This is done with one loan, one fixed rate.

Turn Frustration Into Happiness

       A Quick Success Story. I recently was working with Nikki and Gregg, homebuyers who were looking for a house. After several failed offer attempts they started getting a little discouraged. The realtor was doing a everything she could to keep their spirits up but the market was tough and they were running out of houses make offers on.

       They really wanted this neighborhood but were quickly getting priced out because of multiple bids on every good house as soon as they (the new repos) came on the market.

       There was one house they liked because of the location but it was in terrible condition. Inside it smelled, it was dirty and outside the landscape of the home was in shambles. Light fixtures were missing, there were holes in the walls and the kitchen was missing a stove. The floors were damaged, the carpet soiled and needed to be replaced.

       Despite the bad condition Nikki and Gregg saw their diamond in the rough, they were really interested but the home would not qualify for their financing and the selling bank had no interest in doing any of the repairs.


There Had To Be A Way. And There Was.
 

        I suggested a way that would allow them to purchase and finance the repairs with one loan and in one transaction. This program even allowed them to do allot of the work themselves!

       They made an offer to the bank that was 20k below what the bank wanted. The bank accepted the offer because they had 18 new foreclosures to deal with and really needed to get the house off their books. A very typical scenario these days.

       The happy new homeowners came out ahead 5k and did not have to overpay and deal with multiple bids. The work was mainly cosmetic and I know it only took the a few weeks to get everything done. It worked out perfectly for them and I was happy they got a house in the neighborhood they wanted!

       My Clients, The Parish’s were so happy that they took the realtor and myself out for dinner after the closing. Usually I am the one do the taking out!

Win Win

Unique Advantages To Using This Loan Program.
· You can be in a position of leverage with the seller because there are no competing bids or multiple offers
 
· You can negotiate a good price that may be under market and be in a position of instant equity once the work is completed.
 
· You can still use Govt insured low down payment loans that normally would not be allowed.
 
· The financing is fixed and terms are for typically for 30 years.
 
· Close in one transaction
 
· This loan will work for major structural repairs and remodels
 
· Make the home into what you want it to be!
 
OK…so here’s were I am going to tell you how to take the next step to find out more about this program
 
 
To Get Your Free Consultation / Guide To
GOVT PURCHASE/REHAB Programs
Call 1-877-498-1610 EXT 9
FREE RECORDED MESSAGE
 
        PS If you were wondering why you have never heard about this program before it’s because we have never had a market like this in the last 20 years. The fact is there are only a few times every 20 to 30 years that you have an opportunity to purchase real estate at discounted prices like we have today!
      
        PPS The consultation is Free of charge and there is no obligation on your part what so ever to do anything. I am happy to give you a few minutes of information over the phone to find out if this govt loan program
 
Get More Information On This Program and Requirements For Qualifying
Call
Bill Larson
925-216-9735

 

 

 

Apply For Loan

 

 

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How Capitalism Will Save Us

By Steve Forbes

The Depression was actually triggered by the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1929--30, which imposed massive taxes on countless imports. Other countries retaliated in kind. The global trading system collapsed. International capital flows dried up. The legislative history of Smoot-Hawley is instructive. When it first surfaced in Congress during the fall of 1929, the stock market cratered. When near the end of 1929 it appeared that Smoot-Hawley was being sidetracked, stocks rallied, ending the year almost where they had begun. But then in early 1930 Smoot-Hawley resurfaced, and stocks resumed their slide, which continued after Smoot-Hawley was signed into law that June. A devastating global contraction ensued.

Compounding that error was the U.S.' giant tax increase in 1932. President Herbert Hoover thought a balanced budget would restore confidence. The top income tax rate was raised from 25% to 63%. Hoover even legislated an excise tax on checks--you had to pay Uncle Sam a fee every time you wrote a check. Not surprisingly, strapped consumers withdrew massive amounts of cash from banks in order to conduct their business, which put even more stress on troubled banks. This check tax was one of the factors leading to the bank closures of 1933. The huge tax increase deepened the U.S. economic slump.

If not for the Depression, Hitler would never have come to power--the Nazis had carried only 2% of the vote in 1928.

The 1970s were a decade of stagnation. The U.S. cut the dollar loose from gold, and other central banks gleefully followed suit. The results were three massive bouts of inflation, each more severe than the one before. The U.S. turned inward. Communism seemed ascendant. Nicaragua fell to a pro-Soviet dictatorship, and its neighbors looked likely to follow. Islamic fanatics seized power in Iran.

By the time Ronald Reagan took office, our military was in a shambles, with the U.S. seen as fatally weak. Our economy was in dreadful shape, with short-term interest rates reaching nearly 21%. But Reagan pursued the right policies. The American economy came booming back, and the U.S. won the Cold War, signaled by the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Okay, now that we are finally effectively dealing with the crisis, what should be done going forward?

A formal strong-dollar policy is essential. Economists gag at the thought, but the best barometer of monetary disturbances is gold. The Fed should tie the dollar to a gold price range of, say, $500 to $550. Though the dollar is stronger today, markets rightly fear that monetary blunders will happen again.

Which brings us to the Fed's enormous new powers, not to mention its current ones. Our central bank is now the U.S.' de facto commercial bank and our commercial paper market. It is bailing out private firms. The necessary change here is simple: After the crisis, the Fed must undergo a dramatic downsizing and be given a focused mission. Otherwise, it'll be a dinosaur-size beast that will severely hurt our country. The Fed is politically unaccountable. Yes, its chairman makes periodic appearances before Congress, but the Fed is not dependent on congressional appropriations. It literally prints its own budget. It pays for its operations out of the interest it receives on all the securities it holds and then remits the rest to Uncle Sam. Talk about the ATM that keeps on giving. In a democracy this is an intolerable situation for an agency that now has such enormous power over the American economy.

The big change--the Federal Reserve should have only two missions. They are: keeping the dollar as good as gold and dealing with financial panics. If it does the dollar part right, a panic should be a once-in-a-century occurrence.

Years ago Congress mandated that the Fed do its part to keep unemployment low and the economy growing. But it is truly preposterous to think this bureaucracy can direct a $13 trillion economy. Look at how impotent the Fed has been in resolving the financial troubles of the past 14 months.

Regulating banks? Clearing checks for banks (which the Fed still does)? Leave those tasks to other agencies.

The dollar must be a fixed measure of value. Changing its value is disruptive, similar to repeatedly changing the number of minutes in an hour or inches in a foot. Since the dollar was cut off from gold nearly 40 years ago, the U.S. and the world have had repeated monetary disruptions. Thanks to the ingenuity of free markets we've still achieved enormous progress. But the pernicious idea that manipulating money is a sound economic tool has repeatedly wrought havoc: the great inflation of the 1970s; the stock market crash of 1987 (which was triggered when the U.S. threatened to let the dollar go into a free fall); the 1994 Mexican peso crisis; the 1997 Asian "contagion," which gratuitously battered the entire Pacific Rim; and the 1998 Russian financial collapse.

Cutting tax rates is also a necessity. Political cultures have a hard time understanding that taxes don't just raise revenue, they are also a price and a burden. The tax you pay on income is the price you pay for working, just as the tax on capital gains is the price you pay for taking risks that work out and the tax on profits is the price you pay for success. If you make it more worthwhile for people to work productively and take risks, they will do so. Rebates are useless--they don't change incentives the way lower tax rates do. Ideally, we should enact a simple flat tax. Twenty-five countries have adopted some form of a flat tax, all successfully.

Economic growth will help prevent another financial time bomb--credit default swaps, a form of debt insurance--from exploding. The nominal amount peaked at $62 trillion and is now down to $55 trillion. Renewed prosperity will enable big companies to service their debts, thus nullifying the need to ever collect on the insurance. Most of these swaps will expire within five years.

Sensible, not punitive, regulations in the financial sector are needed, such as standardization of new financial products so that there is more transparency.

Fannie and Freddie should be broken up into a number of new, recapitalized companies that have no ties to Uncle Sam.

If we have the kind of policies that marked the 1980s and not the kind that marked the 1930s and 1970s, we will be in for a dazzling era of innovation and economic advances. Free-market capitalism will save us--if we let it.

 

 
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